Market Trend

Track these to predict tomorrow's market movement.

One of the most bullish of indicators appeared. That indicator was the "80% Up Volume Day." The market tends to be near a bull move when up volume represents more than 80% of the total of up and down volume. That occured on Monday, along with good breadth (the advance-decline ratio on the NYSE was an excellent 3.34) and a diminishing number of new lows (28). Overall, the broad market was somewhat stronger than the blue chips, which is always a bullish indication.




CHECKING THE MARKET INTERNALS

NEWS: The number of new lows on the NYSE was in the 20's yesterday and was 76 today. When the market was hitting new lows just two weeks ago, the number spiked to 900 new lows. As we approach the lows again the number is much lower, suggesting the market may not be as weak this time and a successful test of the low is likely. The 50-day moving average of the new lows on the NYSE has begun to trend lower for the first time since mid-August, when the market bottomed before rallying to a new all-time high.

THE BOTTOMLINE: The data above can be analyzed in various manners whether you consider yourself bullish or bearish at the current time. The bulls will make the case there is a divergence from the last major sell-off in that less stocks are hitting new lows and that suggests the market is not as weak internally. The trend of the 50-day moving average is just as important because it is a display of a longer term trend. The bears will argue the market is just beginning to weaken and that more new lows will be created as the market falls and that there is more bedlam to come. That could be true, but it is more of a guess than an interpretation of the market. Below is a chart of the new lows on the NYSE over the last 8 months.

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2008.05
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2008.08
Matt McC:
In the chart above I have highlighted the handful of buy signals that all occurred at the same time. It began with the consolidation above the $90 price support level, where there was also the 200-day moving average (blue line). The ETF had traded above the 200-day moving average for over a year and the $90 area just happened to fall just above it. At the same time the RSI crossed out of oversold territory, signaling a crossover buy signal. There was also the RSI divergence, which occurs when the ETF makes a new low, but the RSI does not. This signals the ETF is strengthening and when this occurs on support it is a very reliable buy signal. When all the indicators are combined it leaves us with a high reward-to-risk buy setup. BUT, with the potential for oil to drop down to $100 it was an aggressive trade. Also, this type of technical setup is what I call a "swing trade", meaning it could last a few days for a couple of weeks. I will let the chart dictate the holding period.

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2008.09
Eclipse Trader is an Eclipse Rich Client Platform (RCP) application focused to the building of an online stock trading system, featuring shares pricing watch, intraday and history charts with technical analysis indicators, level II/market depth view, news watching, and integrated trading. The standard Eclipse RCP plug-ins architecture allows third-party vendors to extend the functionality of the program to include custom indicators, views or access to subscription-based data feeds and order entry.

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Hussman Metal Timing Indicator

... the combination of all of these is rare but extremely powerful.

Here's Hussman's money quote from that article:
Not surprisingly, the combination of all of these is rare but extremely powerful. In the rare instances when 1) The rate of inflation has been higher than 6 months earlier, 2) Treasury bond yields have been lower than 6 months earlier, 3) the NAPM Purchasing Managers Index has been below 50, and 4) the Gold/XAU ratio has been above 4.0, the XAU has soared at an astounding rate of 123.63% annualized. In contrast, when none of these have been true, the XAU has plunged at -53.21% annualized. That's a gaping difference.


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